---- Program ----




Crowne Plaza Hotel

Athens, 1-3 July 2019

Organized by AUEB Sports Analytics Group


Conference Sponsors








Welcome Cocktail at Crowne Plaza Athens Hotel










Plenary Session #1 (Chair: D. Karlis)


The Ancient Olympics: Events, Technology, Superstars, Women, Lessons for Them and for Us

By Professor Raymond Stefani, California State University, Long Beach, USA


Parallel Session 1A (Chair: S. Jenkings)

Invited Session on Sport Psychology


Pre-Game Speeches: Impact and Measurement

Vargas, Tiffanye       


Coaching Athletes with Hidden Disabilities: Collaborative research findings and measurement

Beyer, Robbi       


Assessing Mental Toughness

Madrigal, Leilani       


Using assessments to facilitate mental performance consulting

Hunt, Madison and Blevins, Anastasia

Parallel Session 1B (Chair: D. Goossens)

Design of Tournaments


Will Groups of 3 Ruin the World Cup?

Guyon, Julien       



Fair-Fixture: Minimizing Carry-Over Effects In Football Leagues

Günneç, Dilek and Demir, Ezgi



Quantifying the Evolution of

First-Class Rugby in New Zealand

Patel, Ankit; Bracewell, Paul and McIvor, Jack


Integrated Break and Carryover Minimization Problem in Round Robin Tournaments

Cavdaroglu, Burak and Atan, Tankut      


Parallel Session 2A (Chair: S. Drikos)

Player Performance and Evaluation


Maximizing financial and on-field performances when composing teams in soccer

Hvattum, Magnus Lars and Pantuso, Giovanni  


Econometric approach to assess the transfer value of professional football players

Besson, Roger; Poli, Raffaele and Ravenel, Loic     


Player impact measures for scoring in ice hockey

Sans Fuentes, Carles; Carlsson, Niklas and Lambrix, Patrick     





Parallel Session 2B (Chair: D. Karlis)

Inplay Analysis


Move it or lose it: Exploring the relation of defensive disruptiveness and team success

Kempe, Matthias and Goes, Floris      



Analysing the effect of a change of transition probabilities related to possession on scoring a goal in a football match

Hirotsu, Nobuyoshi and Komine, Ayako      


Predicting possession outcomes using spatiotemporal data in Australian Rules football

Spencer, Bartholomew; Jackson, Karl and Robertson, Sam     






Parallel Session 3A (Chair: N. Hirotsu)

Ranking of Teams and Athletes


Ranking Elite Swimmers using Extreme Value Theory

Spearing, Harry and Tawn, Jonathan      



Objectively Modelling the College Football Playoff Committee’s Selections

Trono, John


Parallel Session 3B (Chair: I. Ntzoufras)

Sports Modelling and Prediction


Modelling the outcomes of professional snooker matches

Collingwood, James; Wright, Michael and Brooks Roger     


Statistical Models of Horse Racing Outcomes Using R

Owen, Alun     





Ranking of Japanese University Baseball

Toriumi, Takashi       


Talent detection in sport: Machine Learning methods for performance prediction

Leroy, Arthur  


Extreme value prediction: an application to sport records

Fonseca, Giovanni and Giummolè, Federica      


Modelling Momentum in Football

Ötting, Marius; Langrock, Roland and Maruotti, Antonello     




Plenary Session #2 (Chair: P. Scarf)


Availability-to-train in elite sport

By Dr. Ioannis Kosmidis, Reader in Data Science, Department of Statistics, University of Warwick



Parallel Session 4A (Chair: M. Hvattum)

New Challenges in Sports


The explosive growth of eSports and the potential for research opportunities

Kee, Lyn; Huynh, Minh; Meyer, Denny and Marshall, Kelly     


Overcoming the incentive incompatibility of tournaments with multiple group stages

Csato, Laszlo       


Avoiding combinatorial clashes for the Champions Hockey League Group Stage Draw

Westphal, Stephan



Favorite longshot bias and betting margin: An insider’s perspective

Maras, Kostas




Parallel Session 4B (Chair: G. Hunter)

Understanding the Game


The Age Advantage in Youth Football

Lawrence, Steve; Jonker, Laura and Verbeek, Jan     




Modelling netball scores

Scarf, Phil; Baker, Rose and Parma, Rishikesh



Comparison between some European football leagues through related count data variables

Cueva, Valentina; Rodríguez-Avi, José and Olmo-Jiménez, María José   


Contextual information improves the accuracy of predicting the direction of serve in professional tennis

Yamamoto, Hiroyuki; Kudo, Kazutoshi; Buszard, Tim; Reid, Machar; Farrow, Damian and Kovalchik, Stephanie


Identifying Technical Functions of Footballers using Hierarchical Cluster Analysis

Unsoy, Orbay         


Free evening







Plenary Session #3 (Chair: R. Stefani)


Extensions of the Elo Rating System for Margin of Victory

By Dr Stephanie Kovalchik, Institute of Sport, Exercise and Active Living, Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia


Parallel Session 5A (Chair: S. Kovalchik)

Quantitative Methods in Tennis


Fame and Fortune in Elite Tennis Revisited

Meyer, Denny; Huynh, Minh; Marshall, Kelly and Pollard, Geoff    


Random Walks with Memory Applied to Grand Slam Tennis Matches Modeling

Kouřim, Tomáš       



Serve and Return Glicko: An approximate Bayesian model for within-match win prediction

Ingram, Martin       


Using a multi-camera tracking system to estimate ball spin in tennis

Cant, Olivia; Kovalchik, Stephanie;  Cross,  Rod and Reid, Machar     

Parallel Session 5B (Chair: A. Owen)

Prediction in Football (Soccer)


Score-based soccer match outcome modeling - an experimental review

Hubáček, Ondřej; Šourek, Gustav and Železný Filip     


Modelling the 2018 FIFA World Cup - Could we have "Beaten the Bookies" ?

Hunter, Gordon; Jauvion, Benjamin; Rashid  Ishan and Sharif-Ali, Mohamed


A Bayesian dynamical bivariate Poisson state space model for predicting football scores and results

Ridall, Peter       


Using the Poisson-Log-Normal Regression Model with Varying Dispersion to analyze soccer data

Tzougas, George and Karlis, Dimitris  




Parallel Session 6A (Chair: G. Fonseca)



Sports betting strategies: an experimental review

Uhrín, Matej; Šourek, Gustav; Hubáček, Ondřej and  Železný, Filip  


A Modern Love Story: Machine Learning and the Global Sports Betting Industry

Danzig, Lloyd     





Establishing a performance edge in P2P betting

Donovan, Carl; Caneco, Bruno and Bleak, Colin   









Parallel Session 6B (Chair: I. Kosmidis)

Understanding the game using inplay analysis


Flexible multivariate point processes with applications to modelling football matches

Narayanan, Santhosh; Kosmidis, Ioannis and Dellaportas, Petros     


The influence of match phase and field position on collective team behaviour in Australian Rules football 

Alexander, Jeremy; Spencer, Bartholomew;  Sweeting, Alice; Mara, Jocelyn amd Robertson,  Sam 


Structuring Patterns in Team Movement and Performance from Vector Field Analysis and Fractal Dynamics

Zafar, Abdullah and Yousefian, Farzad    




Parallel Session 7A (Chair: V. Manasis)

Models and Methods for Volleyball


Modelling volleyball data using a Bayesian approach

Egidi, Leonardo and Ntzoufras, Ioannis     


A quantitative method for evaluating the skills of national volleyball teams

Konaka, Eiji       


Bayesian Modelling of Volleyball Sets

Palaskas, Vasileios; Ntzoufras, Ioannis and  Drikos, Sotiris    


Complex-1 in Male Volleyball as a Markov Chain

Drikos, Sotiris



Parallel Session 7B (Chair: F. Spieksma)

Scheduling of Sport Events


Lessons Learned in Scheduling the Finnish Major Ice Hockey League

Nurmi, Kimmo; Kyngäs, Jari and Kyngäs, Nico     


On the flexibility of Home-Away pattern sets

Lambers, Roel; Goossens, Dries and Spieksma, Frits     


Rest Differences among Teams in European Football Leagues

Atan, Tankut and Cavdaroglu, Burak      


Iterated Local Search for Multi-league Scheduling Problems

Repoussis, Panagiotis and Gisler, Walter      






Plenary Session #4 (Chair: S. Drikos)


 Sports Coaching: An Art and a Science

 By Professor Simon Jenkins, Department of Sport, Exercise and Health, University of Winchester




Free Time

Free time


Departure for Dinner at Karaiskaki Stadium









Plenary Session #5 (Chair: I. Ntzoufras)


Winning in Basketball with Data and Machine Learning

By Dr Konstantinos Pelechrinis , School of Computing and Information, University of Pittsburgh


Parallel Session 8A (Chair: K. Pelechrinis)

 Prediction in Basketball and Football


Combining the Four Factors with the Generalized PageRank (GeM) model for NBA Basketball

Twersky, Georgia; Lyman, George and Pilkington, Anne


New Performance Measures for the NBA: An Indirect Evolutionary Game Theory Approach

Obrien, John and Fichman, Mark      


A hybrid random forest to predict soccer matches in international tournaments

Van Eetvelde, Hans; Ley, Christophe; Groll,  Andreas and Schauberger, Gunther


Alternative count regression models for modeling football outcomes

Barbiero, Alessandro       


Parallel Session 8B (Chair: P. Repousis)

Fairness and Design Effect in Football (Soccer)


Fair sudden death

Lambers, Roel and Spieksma Frits      





Perspectives on Fairness in Sport

Potts, Chris       




An evaluation of the three-point rule in football

Koevoets, Wim     



Champions League or domestic league: a coach’s choice

Goossens, Dries; Wang, Chang and Vandebroek, Martina   




Parallel Session 9A (Chair: S. Kechagias)

Inplay Prediction  


Predicting match outcome in professional Dutch football using tactical performance metrics computed from position tracking data

Goes, Floris; Kempe, Matthias and Lemmink, Koen   


Randomness of Play Calling in College Football

Curley, Brian; Hopkirk, Gretchen; Lokhorst,  Ryan and Pilkington, Annette


Survival Modelling of Goal Arrival Times in Champions League

Leriou, Ilias; Ntzoufras, Ioannis and Karlis, Dimitris   


Detection of Playing Style of Football Teams and Players using Latent Dirichlet Allocation

Perdomo Meza, David 





Parallel Session 9B (Chair: P. Ridall)

Game Strategy & Decision Making  


Finding optimal strategies for substitutions in soccer using a two-scale Markov Decision Process approach

Rambau, Jörg and Richter, Rónán      




Play-by-play data analysis for team managing in basketball

Grassetti, Luca; Bellio, Ruggero; Fonseca,  Giovanni and Vidoni, Paolo   


Passing tactical relevance during soccer matches determined by machine learning

Merlin, Murilo; Moura, Felipe; Torres, Ricardo; Principe, Vitor and Cunha, Sergio Augusto








Free time



(Informal Walk in Panathinaic Stadium and the City Center)