Statistical Applications in Greek Crime Counts


Tsiamtsiouri A. Alexandra
Supervisor: I. Panaretos
 

 

FIRST PAGES

Table of contents
List of tables
List of figures

 

CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION

 

 

CHAPTER 2

CRIME AND STATISTICS

2.1 Attempts of recording crime data in order to cut down crime activity
2.2 Statistical applications in criminology


CHAPTER 3
ANALYSIS OF MIXTURES

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Basic definitions

3.3 Interpretation of mixture models

3.4 Conventional approaches of classification

   3.4.1 Mapping percentiles

   3.4.2 Mapping p-values

   3.4.3 Mapping empirical Bayes estimates

3.5 When the number of subpopulations g is unknown

3.6 The number of support points

3.7 Algorithms for semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation for mixtures

   3.7.1 The Vertex Direction Method (VDM)

   3.7.2 The Vertex Exchange Method (VEM)

   3.7.3 The Intra Simplex Direction Method (ISDM)

   3.7.4 Related algorithms


CHAPTER 4
PRESENTATION OF THE AVAILABLE GREEK CRIME DATA

4.1 Offenses under consideration

4.2 Preliminary examination of Greek crime data

   4.2.1 Annual data

   4.2.2 Monthly data

4.3 Principal components analysis 

   4.3.1 PCA analysis of the annual data

   4.3.2 PCA analysis of the monthly data

4.4 Clustering of the offenses according to their behavior through time 

   4.4.1 Annual data

   4.4.2 Monthly data

 

CHAPTER 5
APPLICATION OF NON PARAMETRIC MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION TO GREEK DATA

5.1 Using official crime reports instead of real crime counts

5.2 Greek data considerations

5.3 Obtained distribution parameters using the NPMLE algorithm

5.4 Mapping the results of the NPMLE application

 

CHAPTER 6
CLASSIFICATION OF THE GREEK COUNTIES USING THE NPMLE APPLICATION RESULTS

6.1 Clustering of Greek counties per offense activity

   6.1.1  Taking the law into one's hands

   6.1.2  Arsons

   6.1.3  Offenses concerning antiquities

   6.1.4  Caused deaths by car

   6.1.5  Commonly dangerous crimes

   6.1.6  Drug offenses

   6.1.7  Beggary and vagrancy

   6.1.8  Offenses concerning explosives

   6.1.9  Arsons in forests

   6.1.10 Illegal possession and usage of fire guns

   6.1.11 Homicides by misadventure

   6.1.12 Smuggling

   6.1.13 Offenses against life

   6.1.14 Robbery

   6.1.15 Murder

   6.1.16 Rape

   6.1.17 Physical injuries

6.2 Annual clustering of Greek counties by all offenses

   6.2.1  Crime volume of 1987

   6.2.2  Crime volume of 1988

   6.2.3  Crime volume of 1989

   6.2.4  Crime volume of 1990

   6.2.5  Crime volume of 1991

   6.2.6  Crime volume of 1992

   6.2.7  Crime volume of 1993

   6.2.8  Crime volume of 1994

   6.2.9  Crime volume of 1995

   6.2.10 Crime volume of 1996

   6.2.11 Crime volume of 1997

6.3 Final clustering of Greek counties based on the total volume of offenses for the whole time period 1987-1997

 

CHAPTER 7
CONCLUSTIONS

 

 

APPENDIX A

Populations of Greek Counties

Input File: 87guns.txt

Output file: 87 guns.res

 

APPENDIX B

Obtained cluster memberships of the Greek counties from the SML estimation

 

BIBLIOGRAPHY