#
#
# data
ex1_2.greece<-data.frame( game=1:6 )

ex1_2.greece$opponent<- c("Portugal",   "Spain" ,     "Russia",     "France",     "Chech Rep.", "Portugal" )

ex1_2.greece$scored  <-c(2, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1)
ex1_2.greece$conceded<-c(1, 1, 2, 0, 0, 0)

ex1_2.greece$total <- ex1_2.greece$scored + ex1_2.greece$conceded 





step<-0.01
a<-0.001
b<-0.001

x<-seq(step, 3, step)
y <-dgamma( x, sum(ex1_2.greece[,3])+a, 6+b )
y2<-dgamma( x, sum(ex1_2.greece[,4])+a, 6+b )

postscript('chap1_ex01_plot1.ps', width = 10.0, height = 6.0, horizontal=FALSE)
par( xaxs='i', yaxs='i', bty='l' , cex=1.3)
plot(x,y,type='l', ylab='Posterior density', xlab='Expected Number of Goals', ylim=c(min(c(y,y2)), max(c(y,y2,1.5))+0.1 ) )
lines(x,y2, col=2, lty=2)
text( 0.85,1.39,'Goals Conceded', col=2)
text( 1.2,1.07, 'Goals Scored' )
graphics.off()

#------------------
# plot with prior


ex1_2.greece$total <- ex1_2.greece$scored + ex1_2.greece$conceded 


step<-0.01
a1<-1
b1<-1

a2<-1
b2<-2

x<-seq(step, 3, step)
y <-dgamma( x, sum(ex1_2.greece[,3])+a1, 6+b1 )
y2<-dgamma( x, sum(ex1_2.greece[,4])+a2, 6+b2 )

postscript('chap1_ex01_plot2.ps', width = 10.0, height = 6.0, horizontal=FALSE)
par( xaxs='i', yaxs='i', bty='l' , cex=1.3)
plot(x,y,type='l', ylab='Posterior density', xlab='Expected Number of Goals', ylim=c(min(c(y,y2)), max(c(y,y2))+0.1 ) )
lines(x,y2, col=2, lty=2)
text( 0.95,1.530,'Goals Conceded', col=2)
text( 1.3,1.10, 'Goals Scored' )
graphics.off()